October Sold Volume Down 34% But Prices Hold Steady

Eric – you beat me to the punch. I was just thinking today about why it takes ABOR two weeks to release something that can be generated in a few minutes with the data and excel. Here is my prediction… About 10-12 days after this post, the statesman headlines will scream, “Total Homes sales down 34% but prices hold steady”.

:) It’s even quicker than that. When you run the search, just hit the “statistics” button on the bottom right and you don’t even have to use excel.

I definitely saw this coming, and I think we’re going to see a down November & a slightly down December. Next January/February will be telling, but I think we’re going to see a 2009 on par with 2008 – that is, not great, but not horrible.

I agree with you that when the election is over it will calm things down a bit and buyers should return slowly but steadily at the new year.

My market is similar in that prices are relatively stable compared to the regional area. Volume is down by about 1/3 while sales numbers are up as a region. In the surrounding communities there is no shortage of buyers however they are buying distressed properties.

Our volume has been consistently 20-25% down from 2007 this year (with the exception of September, which was only 10% down.) So, the 34% decrease is our biggest drop of the year. However, prices have been holding steady, and slightly increasing in some neighborhoods. I do think we will see a slight decrease in average sold price over the winter. The Austin market is very seasonal, so sellers on the market at this time will need to sell, and will adjust price to accommodate. I think we’ll see a relatively flat 2009 – not a lot of ups or downs.

We have seen similar trends here. Prices are holding, but volume fell off a cliff in October. It does seem like the buyers are starting to come back a little, though it is late in the season.

I’m glad values are holding I’ve seen my value go up in Round Rock and I plan on selling this next summer, so crossing my fingers…

Is there a way to separate new construction from resale?

I would be interested in knowing that stat.
In some areas of town such as East Austin, the new construction was pulling the median up. I felt like the appreciation statistics were off because of it.

@Dena – yes, we’re late enough in the year that you can run a search for solds year built <2008 and it will pull that info.

Sales here are down from last year but up from last month and the average sales price is higher. There are buyers out there and they are spending a little more, but getting alot more for their money. The deals are selling. Well today is election day, my kids are voting too. Everyone I talk to is hopeful that after today things will get a little better.
Julie Anne
http://www.homesbyjulieanne.com blog http://www.deerparkbarringtonrealestate.com

Hope prices hold. I’d rather have to wait to sell at a high price than sell quickly at a lower price!

I have noticed a big bump up in calls and deals getting bottom lined in the last couple of days. Maybe the post election period will be good!

I am hoping that this downturn is bottoming so that this patient can stabilize and start recovering again.

We have the same thing going in Dallas. Prices have stayed pretty stable there just arent as many buyers as there used to be. Hopefully since the election is over it turns around!

I think you have the same problem we have. We just dont have the same amount of buyers. Now that being said we do have a lot more cash buyers and buyer with good credit.

I think that bailout has caused a ripple effect in which prices won’t continue going down for several months. I think they’re in a holding pattern at the moment. but once the money in the bailout runs out, I think they’re going to go back to dropping rapidly.

Like Andy said above, I too have seen a increase in calls and inquiries just in the last week or so. Maybe it’s post-election or maybe it’s because with the coming change in Administrations, people think things are going to get better next year.

Contrast this with the daily paper and the nightly news telling us how bad things are, and it’s no wonder peolle have been a little gun shy to commit to purchases in September and October.

That’s a great article. I agree that when the election is over it will calm things down a bit and i think buyers should return slowly but steadily at the new year.

I am hoping to see the values of homes in my area level out and sales start to move once again. Values can not keep going down forever.

Good news in the air recently. Hopefully this trend will change soon and we will still the home prices level out.