Austin Real Estate Stats: January 2009

Sure, interest rates are low but it’s irrelevant as most banks are just not lending. Mark-to-market accounting means every loan made reduces the bank’s balance sheet, at least for those (the vast majority) banks who are currently saddled with upside-down mortage portfolios, and it’s virtually locked up the credit markets, the TARP be damned. The national default rate is less than 5%. If accounting rules were changed so performing mortgages could be valued at their contract price then banks would have some slack to lend, but as it is they do not.

The lending environment in January 2009 is not dramatically different than January 2008 (with the exception of the lower rates in 2009.) Contrary to popular belief, the mortgage crisis started in third quarter 2007.

That being said, it is definitely tougher to get a loan now than early 2007, but it’s a far cry from “virtually locked up,” with regards to mortgages. If you’re within conforming limits (<$417k in Austin,) then you can purchase w/ 5% down. If you’re within FHA limits (<$240k in Austin,) then you can purchase with 3.5% down. Good credit is required (but not stellar,) for these loans.

Bottom line is that I don’t believe it’s a shift in the mortgage market that caused these numbers.

I suspect that one possible explanation is that the economy is not holding steady, contrary to your assertion. While some basic numbers may appear to be only in a slight decline, such as employment, there are other figures that suggest a larger correction is on the horizon. Consumer spending remains down, and multiple industries are only now reacting to this fact. The semiconductor/computer industry has begun what may likely be a prolonged stretch of layoffs that will hit Austin hard in the next year. Venture capital has dried up, killing many smaller entrepreneurial efforts. GDP only declined slightly, but that figure was tinted by the increase in inventories, which masks much more significant problems on the horizon.

While Austin has weathered the crisis well so far, these real estate numbers might indicate that our local economy is now feeling the pain.

Hi Aaron –

By “holding steady,” I mean that our job market is not contracting, and is not expected to contract. http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/theticker/entries/2009/01/15/angelou_forecasts_tough_econom.html

2009 will be a tough year, and I do expect moderate price drops, and less activity. However, a 43% drop in units sold is much higher than expected. The good news is that the pending property sales are down less than 20%, so February shouldn’t look as bleak.

As we finish the first month of 2009, I’m glad that in the last couple of weeks market activity has picked up. Some of my listings that weren’t getting showings are now being shown multiple times and some of my buyers that were on the fence about making a purchase have resumed their real estate home search again. The increase in activity may have something to do with it being a new year, perhaps because we have a new administration in place or might be because rates are once again at historic lows. Whatever the reason, I’m glad that Austin isn’t suffering like most of the country with their local economies and unemployment rates. As of today, the unemployment rate in Austin was 5.2% as compared to 7% nationwide. Though the local economy is in a slump, and it has affected the local real estate market by increasing number of days on market and slowing appreciation rates, I do think that the market will rebound some by this summer. I think that today’s home buyer is much more aware and knowledgable about what they can afford, and when they’ve made a decision to purchase a home, they’ll do so at the right time. Just my 2 cents.

Definitely looking better than Phoenix! :/