Austin Real Estate Stats: February 2009

Personally, I think average price per square foot is the most interesting stat (average sold price going up could just mean bigger houses got sold). Average price per square foot was down very slightly from Feb 2008 to Feb 2009 ($115.8 to $114.67).

What the average time on market for solds look like?
Have the DOM times seen much of a change recently?

Sorry for the typo. I type quicker than I think…

70 DOM for Feb 2008 and 82 DOM for Feb 2009. 17% increase.

The increase in average/median price surprised me quite a bit, and I don’t think you’ll see the trend stick for 2009. We saw a decrease in average/median price of almost the same amount for January (with volume sold just slightly lower in Jan than Feb 2009) so the price difference if you take both months into account is almost a wash.

The quarterly numbers at the end of March will be much more telling than looking at any one month year/year.

I just wanted to say that I think sellers and listing agents are doing the market a great disservice by continuing to insist on listing prices as if nothing has happened in the equity or credit markets. I am a highly qualifed potential buyer with a great income (top 2%), no debt, FICO of 780, and an ability to close very quickly. There is NO WAY I would EVER EVEN LOOK AT most of the houses being listed in my price range ($1 mm plus) in area 1B because the sellers are all asking way, way too much–some north of $400/sq ft and almost nothing less than $300. Sellers need to realize that with (1) the possibility of losing a portion of the mortgage interest deduction; (2) historically wide spreads between conventional and jumbo mortgages; and (3) serious concern about asset price deflation, there is NO WAY any rational buyer would buy a house priced as if it were still 2007 or 2008. In my view, prices need to come down by at AT LEAST 25% on houses currently priced north of $1 million. Condos? forget about it . . .

Hey J (Joey?) –

I ran these stats for you: 12 homes sold in area 1B with asking price $1mm+ since 9/1/2008 (last 6 months.) This means 2 homes per month absorption rate. There are 2 homes $1mm in 1B currently pending, which is right in line with this. There are currently 62 homes on the market, which means 32 months of inventory, which is really high. Seasonally, homes sell the least from September through February, and more homes start coming on market with more frequency as you get further away from the new year (of those 62 homes on the market, 19 came on within the last 30 days.) So…the numbers aren’t great, but they’re a bit skewed. You’ll see the inventory decline as we get further into the selling season.

I agree with you that prices will come down, but you’re making some pretty sensationalistic claims, namely that:

prices need to come down by at AT LEAST 25% on houses currently priced north of $1 million.

Where did you pull your 25% figure? The luxury homes are not priced as though it were 2007/2008. In fact, pricing has come down more on luxury homes than other markets (I’ll post numbers in a bit.)

I just wanted to say that I think sellers and listing agents are doing the market a great disservice

No one’s doing anyone a disservice by pricing a piece of property at the price they want to sell. Motivated sellers will come down on price until the property sells to a willing buyer. Any responsible Realtor will provide accurate comps, and price the homes accordingly. Homes are moving slowly in this area, in this price point, but it’s not a standstill.

I think what you mean is, “I think sellers and listing agents are doing ME a disservice…” Just because you think properties in an area are overpriced doesn’t necessarily mean it is or isn’t – the market dictates that. Buy when you think the price is right for the type of home you want – no one’s forcing your hand, and the market will adjust as markets adjust. I think the luxury market will gradually decline until our economy stabilizes, but I don’t think you’ll see a 25% drop unless we see at least another year of deepening recession.

Only 15% of your total sales are forclosures? Last time I checked approximately 59% of the homes that were under contract were REO’s or shorts. AZ’s been hit very hard over the past year. Glad to see that Austin is still trucking along.

Over All Sales went down but the price went up. That is so bad. As long as you are still selling homes it might be like a raise.

I think the economic crisis has a great effect on real estate prices & sales, I wish this crisis ends asap